Catastrophic cost of a North Korea-US war

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Catastrophic cost of a North Korea-US war

Post by Rogue on Sat Apr 29, 2017 8:54 am


The $3 trillion ‘catastrophic’ cost of a North Korea-US war
APRIL 29, 2017

IF A North Korea war does become a reality, one unmanageable $3 trillion consequence that hasn’t been widely acknowledged threatens to wreak havoc on the world.

The defiant nation launched another missile test today, just hours after stern warnings from Donald Trump that a “major, major conflict” was possible.

The conflict between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump could unfold in several ways, but it is the 30 million citizens of the hermit state whose fate could trigger a global catastrophe.

A thermonuclear war would be a humanitarian and ecological disaster for the entire region, with radiation causing a nuclear holocaust that tears into South Korea, China, Russia and Japan.
But if conventional weapons are used and the Kim regime collapses (a more likely scenario), we may face an alternative nightmare.

The 30 million citizens of the hermit could be displaced by a war, triggering a costly humanitarian crisis.

‘NO SPACE FOR THE KIMS’
The first consequence would be that the Kims and all those connected with the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea would have to flee compatriots angry at years of human rights violations and public executions.

“Secret police and party officials would seek refuge in neighbouring China or Russia,” Australian National University researcher Leonid Petrov told news.com.au. “There’s no space for the Kim clan in a unified Korea, his brother, cousin, aunts and uncles, they are inseparably connected with the regime and will be prosecuted as criminals.

“Some South American countries might be willing to give refuge to people — Bolivia, Venezuela, Guatemala ... countries that are anti-American might be supportive.”

So what will Kim Jong-un’s people do without their supreme leader? With a lack of money, food and shelter if the regime collapses, they too may seek refuge in China, Russia and South Korea, but those countries will not necessarily be open to an influx of North Korean refugees.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and his supporters would be forced to flee the country if the regime collapsed, leaving its impoverished people increasingly desperate.

THE 30 MILLION PERSON PROBLEM
China is already home to an estimated 100,000 North Korean defectors, and is unlikely to want the pressure of more. The Chinese have been concerned about such a scenario for some time, and might reinforce the border with troops, Rand Corporation scientist Andrew Scobell told Foxtrot Alpha.

Others may try to travel from city to city in search of refuge, while others could try to cross into South Korea, although if fighting persists in the DMZ, that would be almost impossible.

The most likely conclusion would be the reunification of Korea, according to Dr Petrov, but this may mean deep economic and social problems.

“The South Korean economy is reaching crisis,” he said. “It needs to urgently access cheap resource and labour.

“South Korea might use the opportunity to exploit North Koreans who have less education or experience in enterprise. Millions of North Korean workers could become second class citizens, there could be widespread discrimination, even the border might be kept for years to stop mass immigration. It will take at least a decade before the level of prosperity will be equalised between North and South. During that 10 years, the reunification going to be very expensive, $3 trillion or more.

There’s going to be definite social tension between South Koreans and North Koreans.
“Both countries have been isolated from each other, they speak different dialects, understand the world differently. South Korea doesn’t need its impoverished, aggressive, poorly educated brothers to inundate South Korea.”

North Koreans could be exploited, abused or turn criminal if they were forced into a sudden and unequal reunification with their estranged South Korean cousins.

‘A CRASH LANDING’
The reunification of Korea has been under debate for years, and former South Korean president Kim Dae-jung won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2000 for his implementation of the Sunshine Policy to improve political relations between the two states.

But in 2008, the new conservative government put an end to the process, and experts now fear a “crash landing” rather than a soft one. “The East and West Germany unification is a walk in the park compared to what is going to happen in North and South Korea if a reunification happens uncontrollably,” said Dr Petrov. “It will be a huge sociological and demographic issue.”

Korea might expect abuse, crime and other social problems. And the US could feel the consequences too.

“South Korea would probably not support America in open military stand-off against North Korea,” said Dr Petrov. “The America-South Korea alliance will melt away.

“Economic growth in North Korea means more opportunity for South Korea to access natural resources, cheap labour and transport projects (e.g. linking South Korean railways with China).”
He said the experience could be a “bonanza” for both states, as opposed to “military action with catastrophic consequences for both.”

South Korea is due to hold a presidential election on 9 May. If left-wing Moon Jae-in should win, reunification looks likely and the power of the US will take the hit it dreads.
http://www.news.com.au/world/asia/the-3-trillion-catastrophic-cost-of-a-north-koreaus-war/news-story/53445b1ec1e10dd65c9a00ff2c50d8ef
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Re: Catastrophic cost of a North Korea-US war

Post by Agartha on Sat Apr 29, 2017 4:03 pm

It's not the cost I'm worried about, it's the fear of not knowing how far these two lunatics are willing to go........

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Re: Catastrophic cost of a North Korea-US war

Post by Rockhopper on Sat Apr 29, 2017 5:04 pm

Kimmie has every right to be paranoid. NK has a long memory and they remember what happened in 1953 when the "Allies" bombed the country into oblivion. When the "Allies" ran out of military targets they attacked and destroyed Dams that flooded the only productive land in NK and thousands of people starved to death.

After the dams they attacked schools and hospitals and destroyed the education and health systems of the country.
It was a terrible time in the advent of modern history.

Grodon Campbell has an interesting take on the situation;

http://gordoncampbell.scoop.co.nz/2017/04/28/gordon-campbell-on-the-kim-regime/

Timmie not Kimmie.
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Re: Catastrophic cost of a North Korea-US war

Post by Agartha on Sun Apr 30, 2017 3:03 am

I never knew about that, the 1953 bombing, I just googled it..... funny how it's always the same countries that bomb others, and then they complain about terrorism and refugees...... Evil or Very Mad

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Re: Catastrophic cost of a North Korea-US war

Post by Rockhopper on Sun Apr 30, 2017 8:08 pm

It just goes to show that things are never what they appear to be Ags!

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Re: Catastrophic cost of a North Korea-US war

Post by Lenzabi on Sun Apr 30, 2017 10:48 pm

And I have to live here

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Re: Catastrophic cost of a North Korea-US war

Post by Rockhopper on Mon May 01, 2017 12:48 am

Purely an accident of birth Len! Perhaps you should consider moving north before Canada builds a southern wall and makes the US pay for it.

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Re: Catastrophic cost of a North Korea-US war

Post by Rockhopper on Mon May 01, 2017 3:05 am

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Re: Catastrophic cost of a North Korea-US war

Post by Agartha on Mon May 01, 2017 4:16 am

Thanks, Tim, I'll read it later on.

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Re: Catastrophic cost of a North Korea-US war

Post by Rockhopper on Mon May 08, 2017 7:58 pm

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Re: Catastrophic cost of a North Korea-US war

Post by Stargate on Tue May 16, 2017 10:10 am

The thing is although I don't think we are going to have a war just yet, Kim Jung Un is living out the history of his nation and parents. 
I think the US is underestimating this young man, I think they know what he wants namely the reunification of north and south Korea, and that he Kim is willing to pay the price. I do not believe the US is ready for Kim Jung Un, or the fact that there is no way to stop any nation from acquiring these weapons. Israel would like to draw the US into the belief that striking these countries will bring about a secure Israel, although they know it will not bring about a secure America.




I am also convinced that South Korea and Japan are now realizing that they cannot be protected by the US.
I don't believe for a minute that Iran does not have or is still working on a weapon for itself. If America fires one weapon in that area all bets are off because there is no way China can grantee NK, that America will abide by any agreements.
I do think there is going to be war, however the time has not come yet.

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Re: Catastrophic cost of a North Korea-US war

Post by Rockhopper on Tue May 16, 2017 8:28 pm

I agree Star, war is inevitable but not just yet.

Tim.
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Re: Catastrophic cost of a North Korea-US war

Post by Lenzabi on Wed May 17, 2017 12:51 am

We are pretty much controlled by our MIC, and they make money from wars showing off their products for others to buy.

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