2014 to be the Third Hottest Year?

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Post by Monk (in hiding) on Tue Sep 16, 2014 11:16 am

hahahaha

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Post by Stirky on Tue Sep 16, 2014 11:17 am

Still warm here for mid September, but then the past few previous years September has been a good month weather wise.
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Post by Monk (in hiding) on Tue Sep 16, 2014 11:21 am

2014 to be the Third Hottest Year? - Page 6 Climate-history-ice-core-300x143
The diagram above (Fig.2) shows a reconstruction of global temperature based on ice core analysis from the Antarctica. The present interglacial period (the Holocene) is seen to the right (red square). The preceding four interglacials are seen at about 125,000, 280,000, 325,000 and 415,000 years before now, with much longer glacial periods in between. All four previous interglacials are seen to be warmer (1-3oC) than the present. The typical length of a glacial period is about 100,000 years, while an interglacial period typical lasts for about 10-15,000 years. The present interglacial period has now lasted about 11,600 years.

http://sppiblog.org/news/temperature-history

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Post by Monk (in hiding) on Tue Sep 16, 2014 11:22 am

@Stirky wrote:Still warm here for mid September, but then the past few previous years September has been a good month weather wise.

Just weather, not climate..... hahahaha

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Post by Monk (in hiding) on Tue Sep 16, 2014 11:26 am

2014 to be the Third Hottest Year? - Page 6 7Temp2001-2008_lg

2014 to be the Third Hottest Year? - Page 6 12AnnualCarbonEmissions_lg

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Post by Agartha on Tue Sep 16, 2014 1:02 pm

OK, VM, serious question: do you not think burning fossil fuels at the rate we do is damaging to the planet as a whole?
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Post by Monk (in hiding) on Tue Sep 16, 2014 2:56 pm

What other choice do we have, if you like civilization, the burning of fossil fuels is totally mandatory at this point in time.

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Post by Agartha on Tue Sep 16, 2014 3:19 pm

III wrote:What other choice do we have, if you like civilization, the burning of fossil fuels is totally mandatory at this point in time.

Yes, I agree with you...... but do you not think it's causing damage to the environment, to the atmosphere.... to us?
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Post by Monk (in hiding) on Tue Sep 16, 2014 3:52 pm

@Agartha wrote:
III wrote:What other choice do we have, if you like civilization, the burning of fossil fuels is totally mandatory at this point in time.

Yes, I agree with you...... but do you not think it's causing damage to the environment, to the atmosphere.... to us?

Yet you still believe we are natural creatures into this world and are constantly evolving?


What have they done to the earth?
What have they done to our fair sister?
Ravaged and plundered and ripped her and bit her
Stuck her with knives in the side of the dawn
And tied her with fences and dragged her down

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Post by Agartha on Tue Sep 16, 2014 4:00 pm

Yes I do: we are capable of harm and horrible things, but we are also so beautiful and capable of soooo much love.

There is still hope for us.

And with this, I wish you all goodnight ♥♥
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Post by Monk (in hiding) on Tue Sep 16, 2014 5:40 pm

@Agartha wrote:Yes I do: we are capable of harm and horrible things, but we are also so beautiful and capable of soooo much love.

There is still hope for us.

And with this, I wish you all goodnight ♥♥


But we are NOT natural to this world.

Horrible and beautiful and capable of soooo much love. That's what the Bible is all about (US), yet you continue to call it fairy tails. Do you see where I'm coming from........ lsol

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Post by Stargate on Wed Sep 17, 2014 12:50 am

Although there will be many different versions of truths something has got to change.
Hi Ag.

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Post by Agartha on Wed Sep 17, 2014 6:26 am

Stargate!!!!!! How nice to see you here!!!! cheers
How are you doing???


VM..... I don't want to bang heads with you about the Bible again, not worth it. We just see it differently, and that's ok. Very Happy

I love people and to me we are natural of/to this world..... or maybe you should elaborate on that and tell me: where is our natural habitat? How are we meant to be or live?
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Post by Rogue on Wed Sep 17, 2014 6:54 am


Are we an introduced species perhaps? The Cane Toads of Planet Earth.. ugh!
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Post by Monk (in hiding) on Wed Sep 17, 2014 7:25 am

@Agartha wrote:Stargate!!!!!! How nice to see you here!!!! cheers
How are you doing???


VM..... I don't want to bang heads with you about the Bible again, not worth it. We just see it differently, and that's ok. Very Happy

I love people and to me we are natural of/to this world..... or maybe you should elaborate on that and tell me: where is our natural habitat? How are we meant to be or live?

Go play with someone else. lsol

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Post by Monk (in hiding) on Wed Sep 17, 2014 7:35 am

Judith Curry

Judith A. Curry is an American climatologist and former chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology. Her research interests include hurricanes, remote sensing, atmospheric modeling, polar climates, air-sea interactions, and the use of unmanned aerial vehicles for atmospheric research. She is a member of the National Research Council's Climate Research Committee.[1]

Curry is the co-author of Thermodynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans (1999), and co-editor of Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences (2002), as well as over 140 scientific papers. Among her awards is the Henry G. Houghton Research Award from the American Meteorological Society in 1992.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judith_Curry

Climatologist Dr. Judith Curry warns of decades of possible global cooling: Suggests the ‘current cool phase will continue until the 2030s’

Curry warned of possible global cooling. “We also see a cooling period starting around the turn of the (21st) century.” She also suggested that the “current cool phase will continue until the 2030s.” [Also see: Scientists and Studies predict ‘imminent global COOLING’ ahead – Drop in global temps ‘almost a slam dunk’]

“Even on the timescale of decade or two, we could end up be very surprised on how the climate plays out and it might not be getting warmer like the UN IPCC says,” Curry noted.

“We don’t know what’s going to happen. All other things being equal – yes — more carbon dioxide means warmer, but all other things are never equal,” she emphasized.

“We just don’t know. I think we are fooling ourselves to think that CO2 control knob really influences climate on these decadal or even century time scales,” she added.

“I view the [climate change] problem as a ‘big wicked mess,” Curry told the crowd at luncheon assembled. “The main problem is we are putting the policy cart before the scientific horse,” Curry said.

Curry believes the United Nations has distorted the research of global warming and shifted too much on carbon dioxide as the “control knob” of the climate system. “Climate scientists have focused primarily on greenhouse gases,” Curry noted, linking that focus on the IPCC’s focus and the funding streams available to scientists who focus on CO2.

“Other factors relatively neglected,” Curry declared.

2014 to be the Third Hottest Year? - Page 6 Slide12

http://www.climatedepot.com/2014/09/16/climatologist-dr-judith-curry-warns-of-decades-of-global-cooling-the-current-cool-phase-will-continue-until-the-2030s/


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Post by Rogue on Fri Nov 21, 2014 4:59 am

Yep, summer’s gonna be a scorcher, and El Niño’s got a lot do with it
NOVEMBER 21, 2014

NOVEMBER has been a scorcher to date, with way above average temperatures across virtually the whole of Australia.

Maximum temperatures in each of our capital cities have been at least a degree above average so far this month. That’s really amazing given our eight state and territory capitals occupy at least four completely distinct climatic zones.

So in other words, these are not localised anomalies.
It’s also pretty remarkable to have way above-average monthly temperatures over such a wide area when the hottest part of the month is still to come.

As for what happened in October, yikes. Average temperatures Australia-wide were an incredible 2.8 degrees above the monthly norm. In nearly 100 years of forecasting, this is one of the biggest anomalies the Bureau has ever seen.

2014 to be the Third Hottest Year? - Page 6 615377-59941200-711c-11e4-ad68-c33d50396880
This was the Bureau’s November prediction. The red blobs are areas where the Bureau expected warmer than usual temperatures. Note how right they got it with Canberra, which has been 4.3 degrees above average this month. Image: bom.gov.au  Source: Supplied

The interesting thing about the warm end to spring is that the Weather Bureau predicted it. Yep, those professional BBQ-ruiners at the Bureau of Meteorology actually got something right.

On October 30, the Bureau issued a monthly and seasonal climate outlook statement which read: “Warmer than normal November to January days are more likely for Australia …”
So they nailed November. The question is, on a day when parts of Sydney are nudging 35 degrees at 10am, can we also trust the Bureau’s December and January long-term forecasts?

We put that question to Dr Andrew Watkins, Manager of Climate Prediction Services at the Bureau of Meteorology. Dr Watkins started talking about El Ninos which made us go, whoa, slow down a minute. El what now?

Dr Watkins politely explained that an El Niño is a warming of the water in the Pacific Ocean.

“When that happens, it changes the weather patterns over the Pacific. Normally some of the warmest water in the world is off the northeast of Australia. An El Nino moves that water towards South America and drags the weather systems with it.

“When the clouds and rain move away from Australia, things go dry, and when things go dry, you get bigger high pressure systems over Australia that keeps the clouds away, which means Australia starts to heat up.”
Hallelujah. We just found a weather scientist who speaks English. How about that, everybody?

Dr Watkins says his team will issue a new seasonal outlook next week, with the likelihood of an El Niño upgraded to about a 70 per cent chance.

That means, you guessed it, a long hot summer is well and truly on the cards.

For the record, the most extreme spike in Australian temperature records came in the last really big El Niño in 1998. That spike was so extreme that many people now mistakenly believe the world has stopped warming since then.

In fact the overall warming trend has continued. To make sense of that, think of a batsman’s graph in cricket. The batsman hasn’t matched the highest score of his career score, but his average continues to rise due to a series of above-average scores.

That kind of sums up what’s happening in climate of late. And any underlying warming trend could be massively exacerbated again this summer by a great big El Niño.

And now, the maximum temperature averages for Australian cities in November 2014 to date ...
SYDNEY
Has been 25. Is normally 23.6
1.4 degrees warmer than usual
MELBOURNE
Has been 23.5. Is normally 22
1.5 degrees warmer than usual
ADELAIDE
Has been 26.3. Is normally 25.2
1.3 warmer than usual November
CANBERRA
Has been 27. Is normally 22.7
4.3 degrees warmer than usual
PERTH
Has been 25.9. Is normally 24.6
1.3 degrees warmer than usual
BRISBANE
Has been 29.5. Is normally 27.8
1.7 degrees warmer than usual
HOBART
Has been 19.6. Is normally 18.6
1.2 warmer than usual
DARWIN
Has been 34.5. Is normally 33.3
1.2 degrees warmer than usual
http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/yep-summers-gonna-be-a-scorcher-and-el-nios-got-a-lot-do-with-it-bonus-we-explain-what-an-el-nio-actually-is/story-fnjwvztl-1227130590769
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Post by Monk (in hiding) on Fri Nov 21, 2014 8:19 am

Yup winter is again going to be one of the coldest on record as was last year. We are 20 degrees F below NORMAL TEMPS.

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Post by Kaere on Fri Nov 21, 2014 9:33 am

Well... that's winter for you, I guess. It's above normal here right now, snow's melting and all Smile
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Post by Agartha on Fri Nov 21, 2014 10:22 am

Ω wrote:Yup winter is again going to be one of the coldest on record as was last year. We are 20 degrees F below NORMAL TEMPS.

There is a very simple explanation for the so called 'Polar Vortex': Global warming. Global warming is causing it: when the North Scandinavian sea becomes ice free, it sends heat into the atmosphere. This becomes like a block that weakens the jet stream and sends waves of cold air South.... to you guys in the US.

Yes, Rogue, the same has been happening in Europe: warmest Autumn ever, hence in Italy they are flooded as they've never had so much rain (they used to have snow by now).
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