2014 to be the Third Hottest Year?

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Post by Rockhopper on Thu Aug 28, 2014 8:58 am

vision-master wrote:Signs of a narcissist.

•Virtually all of their ideas or ways of behaving in a given situation are taken from others, people they know and perhaps think of as an authority (mirroring).

•Believes that he or she is "special" and unique and can only be understood by, or should associate with, other special or high-status people (or institutions)

•Arrogance is another defense mechanism that keeps the narcissist a legend in his own mind, free from the stain of the imperfection of other human beings. Remember, narcissists (and borderlines) split, seeing themselves and others in black and white.

Someone has to be on top, and someone has to be on the bottom. Being judgmental and power hungry staves off the stink of imperfection.


Got you nailed r, nailed to the t. lsol

Hmmm! Describes you to a 't' as well. At least I don't just copy and paste like you do, the above quote is just another example of that. I do express my own opinions and what I have learned.

Nor am I an armchair Archaeologist, I actually travelled to the various sites and explored them for myself, I studied the Museum records and saw what the Specialists did to get the results they got.

I have said to you many times that if you have some different information then publish it in a reputable magazine/site and get others to review it. Describe how your experiments were done and the result you obtained, so that others can do the same experiments and get the same results. Write an abstract in your own words, not copy and paste from other sites, that is called "Plagiarism" and is frowned upon. It's acceptable to link to other sites with similar info but avoid the fringies as that will kill any credence you would get.

So, write your own replies, it will be a an education and you actually may even learn something!

As for the Climate, it is apparent to me and others that you simply don't know the difference between Climate and Weather. I suggested that you go and learn that first, it's important so you understand what is happening.

Now I'm going to start up my Kubota tractor running on dino diesel to plant 1500 lettuces.

Tim.

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Post by Rockhopper on Thu Aug 28, 2014 9:02 am

@Agartha wrote:LOL! So true!!! And in some cultures overweight women are still seen as sexy....... in Africa, for example, they like women with hips and big bottoms, etc.......

Obesity is bad because it puts a strain on the body and it kills, but it's always a lot healthier to be 5kg over than 5kg under.

Nowadays fashion promote skinny women that are so flat they look like prepubescent boys....... that's not healthy.

Yep Ags. In the past a 'Chubby' girl was regarded as beautiful partly because 'Three meals a day' was a rarity and so a larger girl was well-fed.

Tim.
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Post by Monk (in hiding) on Thu Aug 28, 2014 8:29 pm

@Rockhopper wrote:Yep Mordman. Our summer temps were about 19C but now they are consistently in the mid/high 20's. An increase of about 6C.

Tim.

Climate change in Australia is a highly contentious issue. Temperatures in the country have risen following an increasing trend of global warming between the years of 1910 to 2004 by approximately 0.7 °C.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_Australia

6C is a big difference from 0.7C r. I say your lying r.

Show me the evidence r...

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Post by Mordae on Fri Aug 29, 2014 3:30 pm

Again, your mistaking the effects of climate (the rise from baseline of 0.7°C) and weather (the end effect being heat waves over 40°C in Australia).

To be fair, some of the information out there doesn't really clarify the difference either...as an example:
NZ's warming up - expert


Couple of good doco's on this article...
Crash on Demand – or Rapid Transition?
...For those wondering why on earth people might be talking about any effort to actually, intentionally bring down present socioeconomic systems, I have prefixed and suffixed this article with two videos.

The Arctic Death Spiral and the Methane Time Bomb

The first video, above, does a very good job of covering the most significant aspects of what we’re observing in our global climate systems, covering many of the tipping points that are already proving challenging, and which could ultimately — and in the not-distant future — become overwhelming. It is essential, I believe, that as many people as possible are aware of these issues, so I hope you will take the time to watch the video and share it.

Frustratingly, I’ve recently seen not a few people commenting to the effect that global warming is: 1) not to be discussed, and 2) not important in comparison to other problems we’ve created, like air/water/soil pollution, GMOs, etc. Hopefully the video above will help people to see that: 1) it is a topic we cannot afford to ignore, and must discuss, and 2) global warming is not only not "the least of our problems", but, rather, it threatens to make all other problems academic….

<<<BREAK>>>


...While the first video covers one aspect of the symptoms born out of our socioeconomic invisible structures, i.e. the effects of our actions, the video at the very bottom of this article covers one aspect of the causes that have brought us to this juncture — that being a greedy, unrestrained and self-interested, every-man-for-himself mindset. The particular example of this, featured in the documentary at bottom, is infuriating in the extreme — where profit-centric forces create problems to capitalise on (a painfully common habit in the marketplace) — manipulating every situation to bring about a desired end for the few, regardless of the consequences for the many. You will learn how General Motors, in cahoots with a cabal of transport-related industries actively worked to derail (literally and figuratively) cities around the USA, buying up urban light-rail systems before destroying them and supplanting them with smoke-spewing buses, cars and motorways — all under the guise of gifting ‘freedom’ upon the public, whilst actually imprisoning them in their cars for hours every day.

These industries orchestrated a shift from quiet, clean, space- and cost-saving public transport systems (which encouraged localised communities, by the way) to a gas-guzzling, smog-producing, space-wasting nightmare of road expansion — which dismantled all the many communities that stood in their way. And then, when people found themselves having to actually live in this ‘ideal GM world’, crawling at great expense in purse and health along choked roads and highways, GM then manipulated this unhappy situation of their own devising to their advantage as well – by convincing the public to demand yet more road expansions…. The end result is the tragedy of suburbia — an entire country that spends much, much more energy every second than it would have otherwise. With a mere 4% of the world’s population, the USA consumes 25% of its energy….

This latter video is a tangible, graphic representation of how faulty, and dangerous, is an economic system that relies solely on self-interest to wield the ‘invisible hand’ of the market — an invisible hand, it needs to be recognised, that has no big-picture view, no brain, and no ethics to guide its mechanisms unless we build these in through the collaborative, holistic decision-making mechanisms we have yet to (talk about and) develop and mature...

<<<BREAJ>>>

Global cooling?

It’s on this note that I want to look at the supposed ‘flattening’ of the global warming trend, oft-cited by climate skeptics/deniers, as from experience I know this will otherwise show up in the form of short out-of-context comments below this article.

I could wish that climate deniers would quit pulling the trend of the last few years out from the context of last several decades…. Doing so only shows an agenda, not an objective search for truth. Climate is not a linear mechanism. Rather, it’s a highly complex system that reacts — dynamically — to a broad range of factors within our biosphere.

There are a great many potential reasons for a brief flattening of the global warming temperature increases (read here, here, here, here, here and here). For example, in the first paragraph of this article I gave several links to studies explaining what is called the long tail of global warming. In essence, this means that emissions we put into the atmosphere now can bring reactions much further down the (time) line than today. (It also means that drops in emissions can cause a response much further down the line than today also….)

The collapse of the USSR in the early nineties, for example, caused a major industrial crash of the Communist superpower, and thus a major drop in global emissions.

… the vast collective farms that symbolized Stalinist nationalism at home — and were symbolic of the state’s socialist failures abroad — were gradually returning to the wild. The transition of those 111,197,421 acres, the largest land-use change in the 20th century, has played a significant role in offsetting the country’s carbon emission — albeit a completely accidental one.

New research published in the journal Global Change Biology reports that the abandonment of those farms, which amounts to 23 percent of arable land in Russia, is sequestering 42.5 million metric tons of carbon per year. — From Russia with Climate Love: Abandoned Soviet Farms Improve Environment

This would logically translate, eventually, to a reduction in temperature increases (we’re now looking at that economic crash two and a half decades after the fact). At the same time, China’s economy was exploding, and yet in an extremely ‘dirty’ fashion — majoring in coal — which results in a massive increase in airborne particulates, which, while causing major health issues on the ground, also causes less warming, as fully explained in my article on global dimming...


Last edited by Mordae on Fri Aug 29, 2014 3:44 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : extra bits)
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Post by Rockhopper on Fri Aug 29, 2014 5:28 pm

Yep Mordman. The methane is an unknown quantity. The methane release in the Arctic Ocean alone is at a serious level now and getting worse. The glaciers in the Himalayas are shrinking at an alarming rate and 2.5 billion people rely on them for drinking water.

I own a Market Garden and so I need to know what the weather is going to be from day to day. Already the land is drying out and if it continues I will have to irrigate and that is un-economic for me.

Even I know the difference between weather and climate!

Tim.
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Post by Monk (in hiding) on Fri Aug 29, 2014 9:26 pm

Uses allies, real and imagined to back up claims and arguments.

• They will flatter you, charm you and generally act like they “love” you if they think you have something they want or you can benefit them in some way (see the pattern yet, Mordae).

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Post by Monk (in hiding) on Fri Aug 29, 2014 9:32 pm

Again, your mistaking the effects of climate (the rise from baseline of 0.7°C) and weather (the end effect being heat waves over 40°C in Australia).

To be fair, some of the information out there doesn't really clarify the difference either...as an example:
NZ's warming up - expert


Couple of good doco's on this article...
Crash on Demand – or Rapid Transition?

From your source...

Compiling data from 22 land stations and three islands, Dr Salinger found the New Zealand region's mean temperature for last year was 0.84C above the 1961-1990 long-term average of 12.17C.

.84C is pretty close to .7C (what I said).


Last edited by vision-master on Fri Aug 29, 2014 9:35 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Monk (in hiding) on Fri Aug 29, 2014 9:34 pm

@Rockhopper wrote:
vision-master wrote:Signs of a narcissist.

•Virtually all of their ideas or ways of behaving in a given situation are taken from others, people they know and perhaps think of as an authority (mirroring).

•Believes that he or she is "special" and unique and can only be understood by, or should associate with, other special or high-status people (or institutions)

•Arrogance is another defense mechanism that keeps the narcissist a legend in his own mind, free from the stain of the imperfection of other human beings. Remember, narcissists (and borderlines) split, seeing themselves and others in black and white.

Someone has to be on top, and someone has to be on the bottom. Being judgmental and power hungry staves off the stink of imperfection.


Got you nailed r, nailed to the t. lsol

Hmmm! Describes you to a 't' as well. At least I don't just copy and paste like you do, the above quote is just another example of that. I do express my own opinions and what I have learned.

Nor am I an armchair Archaeologist, I actually travelled to the various sites and explored them for myself, I studied the Museum records and saw what the Specialists did to get the results they got.

I have said to you many times that if you have some different information then publish it in a reputable magazine/site and get others to review it. Describe how your experiments were done and the result you obtained, so that others can do the same experiments and get the same results. Write an abstract in your own words, not copy and paste from other sites, that is called "Plagiarism" and is frowned upon. It's acceptable to link to other sites with similar info but avoid the fringies as that will kill any credence you would get.

So, write your own replies, it will be a an education and you actually may even learn something!

As for the Climate, it is apparent to me and others that you simply don't know the difference between Climate and Weather. I suggested that you go and learn that first, it's important so you understand what is happening.

Now I'm going to start up my Kubota tractor running on dino diesel to plant 1500 lettuces.

Tim.


First, narcissists don’t really argue, do they?  No, they attack.  If you don’t understand that the only goal of a narcissist in an argument is to win, you will find yourself at a terrible disadvantage.  He doesn’t really care to understand your opinion or your ideas.  He just wants you to shut up in humiliation, especially if you dared to challenge his idea.

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Post by Monk (in hiding) on Fri Aug 29, 2014 9:39 pm

Even I know the difference between weather and climate!

Tim.

Climate in a narrow sense is usually defined as the "average weather," or more rigorously, as the statistical description in terms of the mean and variability of relevant quantities over a period ranging from months to thousands or millions of years. The classical period is 30 years, as defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). These quantities are most often surface variables such as temperature, precipitation, and wind. Climate in a wider sense is the state, including a statistical description, of the climate system.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate

Months, to 30 years, to thousands, or millions of years? lsol Razz

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Post by Monk (in hiding) on Sat Aug 30, 2014 5:42 am

New paper shows ice mass stable to increasing over most of Antarctic ice sheet

A paper published today in Earth & Planetary Science Letters evaluates snow and ice-mass changes in Antarctica using both satellite altimetry [Envisat] and gravimetry [GRACE] between 2003-2010. The data shows most areas of the ice sheet are stable to increasing in ice mass, including the East Antarctic ice sheet, which alone contains over 80% of the total ice mass of Antarctica. The Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers in West Antarctica, which overlie geothermal heat sources are found to be losing ice, but represent relatively small regions of the ice sheet. The entire Dronning Maud Land north coast of Antarctica was found to have increasing snow accumulation.


http://hockeyschtick.blogspot.com.au/2014/08/new-paper-shows-ice-mass-stable-to.html

Very interesting?

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Post by Mordae on Sat Aug 30, 2014 3:20 pm

vision-master wrote:
Again, your mistaking the effects of climate (the rise from baseline of 0.7°C) and weather (the end effect being heat waves over 40°C in Australia).

To be fair, some of the information out there doesn't really clarify the difference either...as an example:
NZ's warming up - expert
From your source...

Compiling data from 22 land stations and three islands, Dr Salinger found the New Zealand region's mean temperature for last year was 0.84C above the 1961-1990 long-term average of 12.17C.

.84C is pretty close to .7C (what I said).

and like I said, the article doesn't mkae any difference between weather and climate, which is why I put it up (I've boldened it on the quote for you) Rolling Eyes
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Post by Mordae on Sat Aug 30, 2014 3:24 pm

vision-master wrote:Uses allies, real and imagined to back up claims and arguments.

• They will flatter you, charm you and generally act like they “love” you if they think you have something they want or you can benefit them in some way (see the pattern yet, Mordae).

So is that a dig at me or Rock? scratch

Either way, we disagree on quite a fair number of things...we're just respectful to each other about it. Try it, it works Very Happy
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Post by Rockhopper on Sat Aug 30, 2014 4:49 pm

@Mordae wrote:So is that a dig at me or Rock? scratch

Either way, we disagree on quite a fair number of things...we're just respectful to each other about it.  Try it, it works Very Happy

That's what I try to be too Mordman. I can take a fair amount of crap until it gets personal. Personal attacks generally mean the the attacker has lost the debate.

Just because people may disagree on some points is no excuse for name-calling.

The 6C increase in weather temps here was quoted in the local paper. Maybe they are wrong, maybe not I don't know nor do I care. I just notice myself the changes that are happening here simply because I need to know for my living.

Regardless of the claims of the denial side, the general consensus amongst the people who know is that our climate is changing and not for the better. I'm not a Climatologist but rather a Structural Engineer so I defer to those who specialise in that field. If the largest number of those Specialists say that our climate is changing and it is probably caused by humans, then I see no reason not to believe them.

Sadly there is too much cherry-picking on the denial side. They tend to pick on data that supports their view and completely ignore the data that doesn't.

Tim.
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Post by Monk (in hiding) on Sat Aug 30, 2014 8:46 pm

Antarctic ice sheet is increasing, yet we have GOBAL warming? scratch

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Post by Monk (in hiding) on Sat Aug 30, 2014 9:05 pm

2013 Cooler, Wetter Than 2012 in U.S., According to NCDC State of the Climate Report

Much of the U.S. saw cooler-than-average and wetter-than-average conditions in 2013, according to the government's official annual climate report released Wednesday.

http://www.weather.com/news/ncdc-state-climate-report-annual-2013-20140115

GOBAL warming? scratch

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Post by Monk (in hiding) on Sat Aug 30, 2014 9:10 pm

Global Analysis - Annual 2013

Temperatures across most of North America were above average during 2013, but overall more moderate than 2012, which brought record heat to much of the continent. It was warmer than average during winter for both Canada and the United States.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2013/13

Who's lying?  

One source say's cooler, the other say's warmer? scratch

NOAA's National Climatic Data Center or NOAA's National Climatic Data Center. Razz

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Post by Monk (in hiding) on Sat Aug 30, 2014 11:08 pm

Regardless of the claims of the denial side, the general consensus amongst the people who know is that our climate is changing and not for the better. I'm not a Climatologist but rather a Structural Engineer so I defer to those who specialise in that field. If the largest number of those Specialists say that our climate is changing and it is probably caused by humans, then I see no reason not to believe them.


Agreed, Global cooling and warming changes.

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Post by Rockhopper on Sun Aug 31, 2014 3:31 am

30sec on Google found these:



Antarctic sea ice has been growing over the last few decades but it certainly is not due to cooling - the Southern Ocean has shown warming over same period. Increasing southern sea ice is due to a combination of complex phenomena including cyclonic winds around Antarctica and changes in ocean circulation.
Climate Myth...
Southern sea ice is increasing
'Antarctic sea ice set a new record in October 2007, as photographs distributed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration showed penguins and other cold-weather creatures able to stand farther north on Southern Hemisphere sea ice than has ever been recorded. The news of expanding Antarctic sea ice stole headlines from global warming alarmists who asserted Arctic sea ice had reached its lowest extent since 1979.' (James Taylor)
The most common misconception regarding Antarctic sea ice is that sea ice is increasing because it's cooling around Antarctica. The reality is the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica has shown strong warming over the same period that sea ice has been increasing. Globally from 1955 to 1995, oceans have been warming at 0.1°C per decade. In contrast, the Southern Ocean (specifically the region where Antarctic sea ice forms) has been warming at 0.17°C per decade. Not only is the Southern Ocean warming, it's warming faster than the global trend. This warming trend is apparent in satellite measurements of temperature trends over Antarctica:

From Here.

And some more info. Same site.

Another contributor is changes in ocean circulation. The Southern Ocean consists of a layer of cold water near the surface and a layer of warmer water below. Water from the warmer layer rises up to the surface, melting sea ice. However, as air temperatures warm, the amount of rain and snowfall also increases. (emphsis mine) This freshens the surface waters, leading to a surface layer less dense than the saltier, warmer water below. The layers become more stratified and mix less. Less heat is transported upwards from the deeper, warmer layer. Hence less sea ice is melted (Zhang 2007).

From Here.


“Against the background of global climate warming, the expansion of Antarctic sea ice is an exceptional feature, which seems to be associated with decreasing sea surface temperatures in the Southern Ocean,” wrote scientists with the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute in the journal Nature Geoscience.

“We predict that this mechanism will be a sizable contributor to the factors that regionally and seasonally offset greenhouse warming and the associated sea ice retreat,” the scientists wrote.

More recently, scientists have focused on collapsing ice sheets in western Antarctica. In May, NASA scientists told reporters that west Antarctic glaciers had gone into “irreversible retreat” which could raise sea levels between 10 and 13 feet.

“Today we present observational evidence that the [ice sheet] has gone into irreversible retreat,” said Eric Rignot, the lead author of a study claiming the western Antarctic was collapsing. “It has reached the point of no return.”

Researchers at the University of Washington corroborated Rignot’s findings by using computer models to determine the western Antarctic ice sheet was collapsing — though the collapse would occur over centuries, between 200 to 900 years.

From Here.

Tim.
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Post by Monk (in hiding) on Sun Aug 31, 2014 5:15 am

Yeah weather changes, not just warming. Cooler in some places while hotter in others.

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Post by Monk (in hiding) on Sun Aug 31, 2014 5:33 am

Climate at a Glance

All 48 states, average temps, July, 1901/2000

2014 to be the Third Hottest Year? - Page 3 5bzk8n

Nothing very alarming?

Just did a plot for All 48 states, average temps, December, 1901/2000

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Nothing very alarming?

Check it out r....... -> http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series

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