2014 to be the Third Hottest Year?

[Rockhopper]

Sorry, a cold winter doesn’t mean global warming is cancelled
You’d think that this year’s polar vortex, which everybody was talking about in North-America, would mean that 2014 is a particularly cold year. But what matters is the global average temperature on Earth; North-America isn’t the world, and other parts of the planet had record heat waves this year. In fact, things got so bad in Australia that bats were passing out from the heat and falling from the trees. There’s also a perception issue: As the planet is warming up, people become less used to cold waves than they used to be, so every time there’s one they notice it more.

From Here.


Tim.

[Agartha]

True, people forget that winters used to be harsh all the time. I remember growing up in the Italian Alps, we had looooots of snow every winter..... in the last decade nothing but as soon as it snows people there complain of harsh winters!! lol

BUT, at least in the UK, this summer has not been as hot as last year........ it's been pretty cool.

[Monk (in hiding)]

Montana, Wyoming Brace for Snow - Aug 24, 2014

[Monk (in hiding)]

Global warming slowdown 'could last another decade'

Scientists have struggled to explain the so-called pause that began in 1999, despite ever increasing levels of CO2 in the atmosphere.

The latest theory says that a naturally occurring 30-year cycle in the Atlantic Ocean is behind the slowdown.

But since the year 2000, the heat has been going deeper, and the world's overall temperatures haven't risen beyond the record set in 1998.

As well as the data from the Argo floats, Prof Tung has also examined the Central England Temperature record, that dates back over 350 years. He believes that this confirms the regular 70-year cycles of warm and cold spells.

http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-28870988

[Monk (in hiding)]

Climate Change’s Inherent Uncertainties

In the light of all this, we have at least to consider the possibility that the scientific establishment behind the global warming issue has been drawn into the trap of seriously overstating the climate problem—or, what is much the same thing, of seriously understating the uncertainties associated with the climate problem—in its effort to promote the cause. It is a particularly nasty trap in the context of science, because it risks destroying, perhaps for centuries to come, the unique and hard-won reputation for honesty which is the basis of society’s respect for scientific endeavour. Trading reputational capital for short-term political gain isn’t the most sensible way of going about things.

https://quadrant.org.au/magazine/2014/01-02/fundamental-uncertainties-climate-change/

Garth Paltridge is an emeritus professor at the University of Tasmania and a fellow of the Australian Academy of Science. He is the author of The Climate Caper: Facts and Fallacies of Global Warming. He was a chief research scientist with the CSIRO Division of Atmospheric Research.

[Monk (in hiding)]

Trend To Colder Winters Continues in UK

Figures released by the  Met Office show the UK mean temperature for the 2012/13 winter finishing at 3.31C. This is below the long term 1981-2010 average of 3.83C.



The winter ranked 43rd coldest since 1910, and continues the trend towards colder winters. In the last five years, only 2011/12 has been above the 1981-2010 average. The average over these five years has been 3.03C.

Interestingly, the average winter temperature for 1911-2013 stands at 3.52C, so by 20thC standards the last few years have been genuinely cold.


http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/23/trend-to-colder-winters-continues-in-uk/

[Monk (in hiding)]

Australian Met Office Accused Of Manipulating Temperature Records

THE [Australian] Bureau of Meteorology has been accused of manipulating historic temperature records to fit a predetermined view of global warming. In a dispute with BOM that can be traced to the Brisbane floods in January 2011, researcher Jennifer Marohasy has claimed the adjusted temperature records resemble “propaganda” rather than science.



Researcher Jennifer Marohasy claims the adjusted records resemble “propaganda” rather than science.

Dr Marohasy has analysed the raw data from dozens of locations across Australia and matched it against the new data used by BOM showing that temperatures were progressively warming.

In many cases, Dr Marohasy said, temperature trends had changed from slight cooling to dramatic warming over 100 years.

BOM has rejected Dr Marohasy’s claims and said the agency had used world’s best practice and a peer reviewed process to modify the physical temperature records that had been recorded at weather stations across the country.

It said data from a selection of weather stations underwent a process known as “homogenisation” to correct for anomalies. It was “very unlikely” that data homogenisation impacted on the empirical outlooks.

In a statement to The Weekend Australian BOM said the bulk of the scientific literature did not support the view that data homogenisation resulted in “diminished physical veracity in any particular climate data set’’.


http://www.thegwpf.org/australian-met-office-accused-of-manipulating-temperature-records/

[Monk (in hiding)]

Hottest summer record in Australia? Not so, says UAH satellite data

There are probably only ten people in Australia who haven’t heard it was the Hottest Ever, Record Summer Downunder. And they were probably born yesterday.

Summer here was so scorchingly awful  it was Angry. But a funny thing happened on the orbit overhead. Check out the UAH satellite data on summers since the UAH records began.  The graph below (thanks to Ken) is the temperature data from the NASA satellites, processed by UAH (University of Alabama in Huntsville). Strangely there is a disparity between what the satellites recorded and the BOM.

The satellite data shows that the summer of 2012-2013 was close to ordinary, compared with the entire satellite record going back to 1979. Not a record. Not even extreme?

-> http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs/australia/2013-hot-summer/australia-uah-summers.jpg


http://joannenova.com.au/2013/03/hottest-summer-record-in-australia-not-even-close-says-uah-satellite-data/

[Monk (in hiding)]

Waiting for some nasty's from 'r'. lsol

[Agartha]

To say there isn't global warming is way too simplistic, as global means everything: land, sea and atomsphere. I saw a graph the other day that made me think, as it shows how oceans are accumulating energy and by doing so they are melting ice and changing the weather. This is the graph:



http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/grl.v38.18/issuetoc

[Monk (in hiding)]

To say there isn't global warming is way too simplistic,

Correct, as it's also way to simplistic to say there is global warming.

[Rockhopper]

In response to "v"!

Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature.

We analyze the evolution of the scientific consensus on anthropogenic global warming (AGW) in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, examining 11 944 climate abstracts from 1991–2011 matching the topics 'global climate change' or 'global warming'. We find that 66.4% of abstracts expressed no position on AGW, 32.6% endorsed AGW, 0.7% rejected AGW and 0.3% were uncertain about the cause of global warming. Among abstracts expressing a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming. (emphasis mine) In a second phase of this study, we invited authors to rate their own papers. Compared to abstract ratings, a smaller percentage of self-rated papers expressed no position on AGW (35.5%). Among self-rated papers expressing a position on AGW, 97.2% endorsed the consensus. For both abstract ratings and authors' self-ratings, the percentage of endorsements among papers expressing a position on AGW marginally increased over time. Our analysis indicates that the number of papers rejecting the consensus on AGW is a vanishingly small proportion of the published research.

From Here.

And:

Today, the most comprehensive analysis of peer-reviewed climate research to date was published in the journal Environmental Research Letters. Our analysis found that among papers expressing a position on human-caused global warming, over 97% endorsed the consensus position that humans are causing global warming. Overwhelming agreement among scientists had already formed in the early 1990s. And the consensus is getting stronger.

In a previous Conversation article, I argued that climate denial is essentially consensus denial. For over two decades, attacking the scientific consensus has been a central part of the movement to prevent meaningful climate action.

As early as 1991, Western Fuels Association spent $510,000 on a campaign to “reposition global warming as theory (not fact)”. Their strategy was to construct the impression of active scientific debate using dissenting scientists as spokesmen. This approach was concisely articulated in a memo to Republicans by political strategist Frank Luntz, leaked in 2002:

Voters believe that there is no consensus about global warming in the scientific community. Should the public come to believe that the scientific issues are settled, their views about global warming will change accordingly. Therefore, you need to continue to make the lack of scientific certainty a primary issue in the debate.

From Here. And Here. (pdf)

Even more!

Although preliminary estimates from published literature and expert surveys suggest striking agreement among climate scientists on the tenets of anthropogenic climate change (ACC), the American public expresses substantial doubt about both the anthropogenic cause and the level of scientific agreement underpinning ACC. A broad analysis of the climate scientist community itself, the distribution of credibility of dissenting researchers relative to agreeing researchers, and the level of agreement among top climate experts has not been conducted and would inform future ACC discussions. Here, we use an extensive dataset of 1,372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show that 97–98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, (emphasis mine) and the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers.

from Here.

Tim.

[Rockhopper]

And even more! A history of Climate Science! http://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm

Further info Here.

Try reading the claims made in the last link. Even for a non-scientist, some are absolute idiocy! Like this one;

So, what Mr. Davidson really said was the same thing I have been saying, just in a lot (A LOT) more sensational manner. I am reluctant to say we are in global cooling and a new mini-ice age is on the way when we are in the midst of the hottest years ever recorded. And, for the those that keep saying we are no longer warming, 9 of the 10 hottest years and the three hottest have all occurred since the year 2000. This year is well on track to breaking the record if things don't change (a cold winter in mid-America doesn't mean the rest of the world was the same) (Emphasis mine).

Tim.

[Monk (in hiding)]

[Rockhopper]

One of the 2.25% deniers!

Tim.

[Monk (in hiding)]

Show me how the climate has changed in your lifetime R in the land of Oz?

Hotter
Dryer
Cooler
More rain
???

[Agartha]

VM, in the lands I know (England, Argentina and Italy) the weather has become more:

-Unpredictable
-Hotter
-Wetter
-More bigger storms with deadly gales.

[Monk (in hiding)]

VM, in the lands I know (England, Argentina and Italy) the weather has become more:

-Unpredictable
-Hotter
-Wetter
-More bigger storms with deadly gales.

Since when?

Cycles of weather..........

We had the dust bowls of the 1930's........ HOT DRY (what happened in the 1940's)??

[Agartha]

Since I can remember........ I remember in Italy in the early 80s, winters were really harsh, lots of snow, very cold......... nowadays they barely get any.

[Monk (in hiding)]

Since I can remember........ I remember in Italy in the early 80s, winters were really harsh, lots of snow, very cold......... nowadays they barely get any.

20 some years, big deal.

We had mild winters and hot summers/ cool summers and very cold winters.

years with lot's of water and years with little water..... so?

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