Re: 2014 was the Hottest Year on Record...

[Lenzabi]

they can only use whatever ice is left over land in the arctic circle as the arctic sea ice of the North Pole is gone.

[Rockhopper]

We know from Ice cores that the CO2 was stable at 280ppm of thousands of years but in 1850 on, when we started to use fossil fuels, the amount of CO2 has increased to nearly 400ppm at present.

We also know that CO2 heats up the planet and that it has raised the temp. by about 1C since then.  

We also know that the increase of CO2 has come from Fossil Fuels. And that extra CO2 has raised the temp.

So, that answer is; if we keep on pouring it into the air the temp. is going to increase further. Worse, the increase causes other bad things to happen like more methane escaping and causing a runaway effect. Hot air holds more water vapour so more wilder storms both hot and cold ones. More droughts and forest fires and so on.

The planet will survive but will humans and other organisms?

Tim.

[Monk (in hiding)]

No, we do not know that CO2 is heating up the Planet, all we know is the Planet is getting warmer.

If CO2 is heating up the Planet, show me the proof, not some summary of conjecture.

1. the formation or expression of an opinion or theory without sufficient evidence for proof. 2. an opinion or theory so formed or expressed; guess; speculation.

Ice cores show atmospheric CO2 variations to lag behind atmospheric temperature changes on a century to millennium scale.

[Rockhopper]

There is plenty of info out there VM. Go and look for yourself, it's there.

It is proven that increasing the CO2 level in glasshouses raises the temp!

The planet is a closed system and one could look at it as being a very big glasshouse with our atmosphere being the glass. 

We know that the temp has been steadily increasing since 1850 when accurate measurements started.

So to summarise: 1/ CO2 has increased from 280ppm in 1850 to the current 400ppm.

2/ In that time the temp has increased by about 1C.

3/The suns output is stable over that time period.

4/ Satellite data since 1970 shows that the increase in temp is correspondent with the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere.

5/ There is no indication that volcanoes have increased the CO2 markedly.

Conclusion: Human produced CO2 is warming the atmosphere.

"Proof" is a concept; can you prove that the sky is blue? It could be green, or yellow! You may see it as Indigo so how do you prove that what you see is correct?

Tim.

[Monk (in hiding)]

Sorry rock, you are just babbling the old rhetoric you were told decades ago.

You are starting to look like an old fool my friend.

CO2 always lags changes in temperature.
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The phase relation between atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperature

Using data series on atmospheric carbon dioxide and global temperatures we investigate the phase relation (leads/lags) between these for the period January 1980 to December 2011. Ice cores show atmospheric CO2 variations to lag behind atmospheric temperature changes on a century to millennium scale, but modern temperature is expected to lag changes in atmospheric CO2, as the atmospheric temperature increase since about 1975 generally is assumed to be caused by the modern increase in CO2. In our analysis we use eight well-known datasets: 1) globally averaged well-mixed marine boundary layer CO2 data, 2) HadCRUT3 surface air temperature data, 3) GISS surface air temperature data, 4) NCDC surface air temperature data, 5) HadSST2 sea surface data, 6) UAH lower troposphere temperature data series, 7) CDIAC data on release of anthropogene CO2, and GWP data on volcanic eruptions. Annual cycles are present in all datasets except 7) and , and to remove the influence of these we analyze 12-month averaged data. We find a high degree of co-variation between all data series except 7) and 8 ), but with changes in CO2 always lagging changes in temperature. The maximum positive correlation between CO2 and temperature is found for CO2 lagging 11–12 months in relation to global sea surface temperature, 9.5–10 months to global surface air temperature, and about 9 months to global lower troposphere temperature. The correlation between changes in ocean temperatures and atmospheric CO2 is high, but do not explain all observed changes.


http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818112001658

[Rockhopper]

That paper is an abstract VM, that is a hypothesis and is published to see what the peers review it to be. It's not new and has been around since the 1960's, just rehashed over again.

So to summarise again; in the last 150 years the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased from 280ppm to 400ppm. Over that time the temp. has increased 1C. All other influences (called 'Forcings') have remained the same so therefore the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere is the cause of that increase.

We could argue this for years to come but what we need to do is stop dumping our rubbish into the air and oceans and then everyone would be better off.

Tim.

[Monk (in hiding)]

Purchase the entire article for $39.95

Abstract

It's a NOUN Ludwig...

noun  

6. a summary of a text, scientific article, document, speech, etc.; epitome.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So to summarise again; in the last 150 years the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased from 280ppm to 400ppm. Over that time the temp. has increased 1C. All other influences (called 'Forcings') have remained the same so therefore the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere is the cause of that increase.

My point being, CO2 follows temp rise.

There is, however, still a degree of uncertainty about which came first—a spike in temperature or CO2. Until now, the most comprehensive records to date on a major change in Earth’s climate came from the EPICA Dome C ice core on the Antarctic Plateau. The data, covering the end of the last ice age, between 20,000 and 10,000 years ago, show that CO2 levels could have lagged behind rising global temperatures by as much as 1,400 years. “The idea that there was a lag of CO2 behind temperature is something climate change skeptics pick on,” says Edward Brook of Oregon State University’s College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences. “They say, ‘How could CO2 levels affect global temperature when you are telling me the temperature changed first?’”

Frédéric Parrenin of the Laboratory of Glaciology and Geophysical Environment in France and a team of researchers may have found an answer to the question. His team compiled an extensive record of Antarctic temperatures and CO2 data from existing data and five ice cores drilled in the Antarctic interior over the last 30 years. Their results, published February 28 in Science, show CO2 lagged temperature by less than 200 years, drastically decreasing the amount of uncertainty in previous estimates.



http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/ice-core-data-help-solve/

Again, CO2 lags temp rise...... (notice how they are grasping AT STRAWS.......)

[Monk (in hiding)]

Ice cores show CO2 increases lag behind temperature rises, disproving the link to global warming

The lag proves that rising CO2 did not cause the initial warming as past ice ages ended, but it does not in any way contradict the idea that higher CO2 levels cause warming.

Sometimes a house gets warmer even when the central heating is turned off. Does this prove that its central heating does not work? Of course not. Perhaps it's a hot day outside, or the oven's been left on for hours.

Just as there's more than one way to heat a house, so there's more than one way to heat a planet.



Ice cores from Antarctica show that at the end of recent ice ages, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere usually started to rise only after temperatures had begun to climb. There is uncertainty about the timings, partly because the air trapped in the cores is younger than the ice, but it appears the lags might sometimes have been 800 years or more.


http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn11659-climate-myths-ice-cores-show-co2-increases-lag-behind-temperature-rises-disproving-the-link-to-global-warming.html

[Monk (in hiding)]

Ice Cores

Antarctica
The deepest ice, and therefore the ice with the longest record, is found in Antarctica. As the ice in Antarctica is mostly over land, as opposed to the Arctic where most of the ice is floating on sea, this makes it ideal for deep core sampling. EPICA is the deepest of the ice cores and it also goes farthest back in time. Figure 2 shows the temperature and radiation data as calculated from the Milankovitch cycles. As can be seen, there is good agreement between the timing of orbital cycles and the temperature changes. It is also noticeable that there is a tendency for times of higher radiation to be associated with higher temperature but the correspondence is far from perfect. Figure 3 shows temperature and CO2. As can be seen, there is close correspondence in the timing and relative magnitude of the two variables. Although not clear from this chart there is general agreement that temperature changes precede CO2 changes during the rising phase and CO2 lags temperature by a larger amount during the falling phase. Figure 4 and Figure 5 show similar relationships for the Vostok ice core (note: EPICA ad Vostok are both in the Antarctic).



http://www.climatedata.info/Proxy/Proxy/icecores.html

[Rogue]

Yes, it's hot in the city and getting hotter
10:42 AM Saturday Jan 31, 2015


Urban heatwaves have become more frequent over the past 40 years, scientists report.

A weather database of cities across the world reveals "significant" increases in periods of extremely hot days and falls in the number of cold days.

Previous research found that in the four decades covered in the study, man-made global warming stepped up a gear.

But, in urban heatwaves, additional factors can play a role, the authors cautioned yesterday.

These include local climate variability, the design and spread of a city, and land cover beyond it.

"Over half of the world's population now live in urban areas," lead author Vimal Mishra, a professor at the Indian Institute of Technology Gandhinagar, said.

"It is particularly important to understand how the climate and climate extremes, in particular, are changing in these areas."


The data trawl covered 650 cities, defined as areas with a population greater than 250,000, with weather stations that reported to a United States-run meteorological report called Global Summary of the Day.

The researchers were left with 217 cities for which there were complete records for 1973 to 2012.

Heatwaves were defined as periods lasting six days consecutively or more - their daily maximum had to be greater than 99 per cent of the temperatures recorded at that time of the year, as measured over the whole 40 years.

From 1973 to 2012, the number of heatwaves per urban area rose by 0.3 of an event, a "statistically significant" increase, the researchers said.

Of the five years with the most heatwaves, four occurred in the most recent years - 2009, 2010, 2011 and 2012.

Over the 40 years, more than half of the weather stations reported an increase in the number of individual extreme hot days.

And almost two-thirds showed significant increases in the number of individual extreme hot nights.

The five years with the largest number of cold waves were towards the start of the study period - 1973, 1974, 1976, 1981 and 1983.

The new study appears in a British journal, Environmental Research Letters.

-AFP
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11394637

[Rockhopper]

Yep Roggie. The Urban Heat Island has to be taken into account too. It is generally caused by huge amounts of tar and cement on the surface, and includes the waste heat from buildings etc.

VM, I am well aware of what the word "Abstract" means. In scientific terms it means 'A written summary of a hypothesis that is published in peer reviewed magazines'.

The hypothesis of an increase of CO2 following an increase in temps was first suggested back in the 60's when less was known about the cause and effect. We know much more now. So, if that is true, what is the mechanism that is driving it? Something is driving the increase of temps. It's not the sun! There has to be a cause.

Tim.

[Monk (in hiding)]

The hypothesis of an increase of CO2 following an increase in temps was first suggested back in the 60's when less was known about the cause and effect. We know much more now. So, if that is true, what is the mechanism that is driving it? Something is driving the increase of temps. It's not the sun! There has to be a cause.

Our current understanding of climate-change focuses on the “human influence”. It then explains how the sun is actually travelling through our galaxy on a helical path, which periodically crosses the galactic plane (above and below). Over thousands of years the strength of the sun’s magnetic field increases as it moves above the galactic plane because the plasma region is denser. This in turn means an increased number of high energy cosmic particles in the magnetosphere and of course intense solar radiation. One such helical cycle takes the sun thousands of years to complete. As the sun approaches the highest plasma density above the galactic plane – which is also the highest possible point in the galaxy – the solar maximums and minimums begin to take on strange behaviour.

Today there is much research to show how the magnetic fields of the Earth and Sun are linked, therefore when solar radiation increases or behaves erratically, so does the  radiation on both the surface of the earth and inside. This variable behaviour of the sun influences the weaker magnetic field of the earth, which is experiencing a rapid shift in polarity at the present time. Compared to recent history, this polarity change has sped up considerably in the 20th century. Currently the magnetic poles are moving faster than at any other time in human history, changing position at almost 40 miles per year! This suggests that we are approaching the end of a polar chron!




http://www.helical-universe.info/helical-universe/

[Monk (in hiding)]

[Rockhopper]

"The global concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere hit 400 parts per million for the first time in recorded history on Thursday, according to data from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii.

Since 1958, the Mauna Loa Observatory has been gathering data on how much carbon dioxide is in the atmosphere.  Carbon dioxide has increased by about 24 percent since the beginning of this record. Thursday's level was an unprecedented 400.03 ppm. (Source: NOAA)

Carbon dioxide is an important heat-trapping (greenhouse) gas, which is released through human activities such as deforestation and burning fossil fuels, as well as natural processes such as respiration and volcanic eruptions.  It is the primary driver of recent global climate change."





http://climate.nasa.gov/faq/

Tim.

[Monk (in hiding)]

Carbon dioxide is an important heat-trapping (greenhouse) gas, which is released through human activities such as deforestation and burning fossil fuels, as well as natural processes such as respiration and volcanic eruptions.  It is the primary driver of recent global climate change."

Remember NSA said we went to the Moon in 1969 too.



Fig. 1. Monthly global atmospheric CO2 (NOOA; green), monthly global sea surface temperature (HadSST2; blue stippled) and monthly global surface air temperature (HadCRUT3; red), since January 1980. Last month shown is December 2011

[Monk (in hiding)]

Global average sea surface temperature (SST) update from AMSR-E on NASA’s Aqua satellite, updated through yesterday, July 7, 2011:

[Monk (in hiding)]

Here's your warming trend........


In 1998, RSS was formed to provide an alternative analysis of the MSU data. RSS pointed out a significant error in UAH’s temperature analysis caused by a failure to accurately correct for the effects of orbital decay on observations across multiple satellites. This correction, along with another one in 2005, brought UAH largely in line with the other temperature records, though it continues to show a slightly lower long-term warming trend. Scientists generally supporting the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) findings on climate change see this correction of the UAH temperature analyses as a significant vindication of their findings on this issue and, as such, as a major rebuttal to climate contrarians who long had pointed to the differences in surface and upper atmosphere warming trends as supporting their viewpoints.

As shown in the figure below, all four temperature series align remarkably well when normalized on the same baseline period. GISS and HadCRU both show a warming trend of 0.16 degrees C per decade from 1979 to February 2008. RSS shows a warming trend of 0.18 per decade over the same period, while UAH shows a warming trend of 0.14. The largest divergence between temperature series over the last 30 years occurred in 1998, when both satellite-based series showed almost half a degree higher temperatures than land-based series, though the cause of this is unclear.


http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2008/04/common-climate-misconceptions-global-temperature-records/

[Monk (in hiding)]

More Temperature Variability in a Warming World? Not So.

Zeke Hausfather — June 11, 2014

A common perception holds that temperatures will become more variable in a warming world, with “higher highs and lower lows”, or at least that temperatures will vary over a wider range over time. Surprisingly, this idea has little basis in the science.

Evidence instead suggests that temperatures have become slightly less variable as Earth has warmed, and climate models also predict a modest reduction in variability with warming over the coming century. The reduction in variability seems to be concentrated primarily in the winter months, and it is modest enough that it will have little impact on the increasing frequency of extreme heat events in a warming world. However, it is good news that increasing variability seems unlikely to further increase the frequency of extreme heat.


http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2014/06/more-temperature-variability-in-a-warming-world-not-so/

[Lenzabi]

So, please explain in your OWN words how is it that images of the arctic show no more ice?
That glaciers are on the move and melting into the oceans?
That the alps glaciers are almost all gone?
Glacier National Park has lost a huge part of it's glaciers? Greenland and the antarctic also are shedding glaciers?

Ocean acidicification
more droughts?
stronger storms and hurricanes than in the past?
more animal die offs?
oceans rising?
I feel that these are based on warming, changes by our pollution into the eco-system as akin t toxins from an infection that if left to build up can lead to a worsening of the over all health of the biosphere.
and finally why are all of your sources traceable to being funded by the BIG Corporates?

[Monk (in hiding)]

Just going by the science.

The Arctic Brings Surprises, but the Trend Remains Clear

David Appell  —  December 18, 2014

The Arctic has already been the source of many of the surprises that climate change has brought. But this year’s surprise is a little different.


SAN FRANCISCO, CA, DECEMBER 17, 2014 — The Arctic has already been the source of many of the surprises that climate change has brought. But this year’s surprise is a little different: Greenland seems to have lost no ice compared to a year ago.

That hardly means that the Arctic is no longer a region of great concern, said scientists here at the American Geophysical Union’s Fall Meeting. It simply means that there will always be a good deal of natural variability in the region. It’s what keeps their annual Arctic Report Card interesting.

Despite the status in Greenland ice over the past year, the long-term trend is troubling: as ice loss accelerates over the years, the continent is getting darker.


http://www.yaleclimateconnections.org/2014/12/the-arctic-brings-surprises-but-the-trend-remains-clear/

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