Irreversible Civilisation Collapse...

[Rockhopper]

A new study partly-sponsored by Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center has highlighted the prospect that global industrial civilisation could collapse in coming decades due to unsustainable resource exploitation and increasingly unequal wealth distribution.

Noting that warnings of 'collapse' are often seen to be fringe or controversial, the study attempts to make sense of compelling historical data showing that "the process of rise-and-collapse is actually a recurrent cycle found throughout history." Cases of severe civilisational disruption due to "precipitous collapse - often lasting centuries - have been quite common."

The independent research project is based on a new cross-disciplinary 'Human And Nature DYnamical' (HANDY) model, led by applied mathematician Safa Motesharrei of the US National Science Foundation-supported National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, in association with a team of natural and social scientists. The HANDY model was created using a minor Nasa grant, but the study based on it was conducted independently. The study based on the HANDY model has been accepted for publication in the peer-reviewed Elsevier journal, Ecological Economics.

It finds that according to the historical record even advanced, complex civilisations are susceptible to collapse, raising questions about the sustainability of modern civilisation:

"The fall of the Roman Empire, and the equally (if not more) advanced Han, Mauryan, and Gupta Empires, as well as so many advanced Mesopotamian Empires, are all testimony to the fact that advanced, sophisticated, complex, and creative civilizations can be both fragile and impermanent."

From Here

Tim.

[Monk (in hiding)]

He's sweatin', look at him
Optical promise
Heh, heh, heh
You'll be dead and in hell
Before I'm born
Sure thing
Brides maid
The only solution
Isn't it amazing?

[Agartha]

I know we are abusing the planet, but I disagree: I don't think we can compare the Roman Empire to us, we are now in a place we have never been before in the history of humankind.... you can't compare an empire that died 2000 years ago to us in the 21st century.........I strongly believe the  Industrial revolution changed the game for us!

This is what Tainter, a Utah State University Anthropologist and mentioned in books and articles, had to say about it (LINK )

It is interesting how collapse theories mirror broader societal issues. During the Cold War, we had theories ascribing collapse to elite mismanagement, class conflict, and peasant revolts. As global warming became a public issue, scholars of the past began to discover that ancient societies collapsed due to climate change. As we have become concerned about sustainability and resource use today, we have learned that ancient societies collapsed due to depletion of critical resources, such as soil and forests. Now that inequality and “the 1%” are topics of public discourse, we have this paper focusing largely on elite resource consumption.
Models depend on the assumptions that go into them. Thus the first four pages of the paper are the part most worth discussing.
The paper has many flaws. The first is that “collapse” is not defined, and the examples given conflate different processes and outcomes. Thus the authors are not even clear what topic they are addressing.
Collapses have occurred among both hierarchical and non-hierarchical societies, and the authors even discuss the latter (although without understanding the implications for their thesis). Thus, although the authors purport to offer a universal model of collapse (involving elite consumption), their own discussion undercuts that argument.
Contrary to the authors’ unsubstantiated assertion, there is no evidence that elite consumption caused ancient societies to collapse. The authors simply have no empirical basis for this assumption, and that point alone undercuts most of the paper.
The authors assert that there is a “two-class structure of modern society,” and indeed their analysis depends on this being the case. The basis for this assertion comes from two papers published in obscure physics journals. That’s right, this assertion does not come from peer-review social science. It comes from journals that have no expertise in this topic, and whose audience is unqualified to evaluate the assertion critically.
In other words, there is no empirical or substantiated theoretical basis for this paper’s model.
In modeling, once one has established one’s assumptions and parameters, it is a simple matter to program the mathematics that will give the outcome one wants or expects. For this reason, models must be critically evaluated. Unfortunately, most readers are unable to evaluate a model’s assumptions. Instead, readers are impressed by equations and colored graphs, and assume thereby that a model mimics real processes and outcomes. That seems to be the case with this paper, and it represents the worst in modeling.

[X]

Collapse won't happen when a population like we have now on the planet is watched and controlled/manipulated so much....

we don't think for ourselves anymore...and are mere puppets...fearful puppets at best

[Agartha]

But the masses have always been puppets of those in power,  whether they were Roman emperors, Egyptian pharaos, Chinese emperors etc. It's nothing new.

[Monk (in hiding)]

But the masses have always been puppets of those in power,  whether they were Roman emperors, Egyptian pharaos, Chinese emperors etc. It's nothing new.

Is that what your hisStory books told you?

[Agartha]

But the masses have always been puppets of those in power,  whether they were Roman emperors, Egyptian pharaos, Chinese emperors etc. It's nothing new.

Is that what your hisStory books told you?

Even in South America the masses were under the power of their rulers: the Incas, the Mayans, the Aztecs, etc.  Only very small tribes lived freely, but they had to hide from the big groups as they would have been enslaved by them.

And not from books, this I  just said I learned from the native Americans in the Chaco region of Argentina.

[Monk (in hiding)]

But the masses have always been puppets of those in power,  whether they were Roman emperors, Egyptian pharaos, Chinese emperors etc. It's nothing new.

Is that what your hisStory books told you?

Even in South America the masses were under the power of their rulers: the Incas, the Mayans, the Aztecs, etc.  Only very small tribes lived freely, but they had to hide from the big groups as they would have been enslaved by them.

And not from books, this I  just said I learned from the native Americans in the Chaco region of Argentina.

Link...............

They took care of the sick, elderly and poor.

No wonder why you have no faith.

[Agartha]

Link...............

They took care of the sick, elderly and poor.

No wonder why you have no faith.

Link? I said I got that talking to them.......

Ok, let me repeat again: only the smaller tribes did that. The bigger ones like the Incas, Aztecs, Mayans etc, were not better than the Romans or the Chinese.

[Agartha]

And I never said I have no faith: I said I don't believe in the bible or any other organized religion. I have more faith than you, hence I am a positive happy person.

[Rockhopper]

Fascinating discussion!

The link I posted is, to my mind, alarmist. Nothing grows to the sky and nothing lasts forever. We can't fully extrapolate what happened 1500yrs ago with now. Things are so much different today. Yes, we are controlled, manipulated and exploited by those in power. This also includes churches who often manipulate their followers.

Just because some-one is a atheist does not mean that they are not spiritual. It just means that they don't believe in a established god or gods. Nor are they any more amoral than believers, remember our gaols are full of people who, sometimes fervently, believe in god.

Getting back to the subject, as one empire declines another rises to take it's place and it carries on.

Tim.

[Monk (in hiding)]

Just because some-one is a atheist does not mean that they are not spiritual. It just means that they don't believe in a established god or gods. Nor are they any more amoral than believers, remember our gaols are full of people who, sometimes fervently, believe in god.


Atheism

Atheism is, in a broad sense, the rejection of belief in the existence of deities.[1][2] In a narrower sense, atheism is specifically the position that there are no deities.[3][4][5] Most inclusively, atheism is the absence of belief that any deities exist.[4][5][6][7] Atheism is contrasted with theism,[8][9] which in its most general form is the belief that at least one deity exists.[9][10]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atheism

[Monk (in hiding)]

And I never said I have no faith: I said I don't believe in the bible or any other organized religion. I have more faith than you, hence I am a positive happy person.

Faith does not come from within ones self. Whether you believe in the Bible or not, the Bible is about who we are. Also, since when is believing in the bible belonging to organized religion? They are not one an the same.

My neighbor is from the middle east with a Christian blood line going back 2,000 years. He belongs to no church, yet goes and prays/ worships at different places every week. He has faith and is a true Christian.

[Rockhopper]

And I never said I have no faith: I said I don't believe in the bible or any other organized religion. I have more faith than you, hence I am a positive happy person.

Faith does not come from within ones self. Whether you believe in the Bible or not, the Bible is about who we are. Also, since when is believing in the bible belonging to organized religion? They are not one an the same.

My neighbor is from the middle east with a Christian blood line going back 2,000 years. He belongs to no church, yet goes and prays/ worships at different places every week. He has faith and is a true Christian.

Whipping a dead horse again VM! My atheism is how I define it not how you do. At no time have I ever said that I have no faith. I do , I have faith in my own ability to deal with whatever comes my way. I don't need a belief in a deity to do that. Just life experience.

Now the bible is not about who we are, we are completely different from those who wrote it and why it was written. It's full of contradictions and contractions that make no sense in a modern world. It's god is a nasty, vicious and vengeful entity and far from the benign entity that many people believe in.

Who is to say that the bible is the only book of life's laws? What about the quran? The torah? The talmud? The Indus valley vedas? The Chinese q'ing?  All are just as important as the bible.

No, your views are your own and you are entitled to them. I have no problem with what you may or may not believe. But your belief in them does not make them facts nor does it give you the right to criticise those who disagree with you.

Tim.

[Lenzabi]

Where the collapse is coming from is not just elite consumption, it is that we have as most empires run out of the old axiom of and for expansion. We show similar signs of decay to the old Roman Empire before it fell, same with the Meso-American Empires. Other empires could not survive the contact of other empires, but the present Human-corporate empire is going to burn out soon. I know the people here who have spawned and had kids want that there be a bright shiny future, but it is only if those with the bright and shiny ideas amongst them can be allowed to make such reality. The current form of governance is leading to drab, conformist, and dull thought as good, bright and shiny is scary, yet the bright and shiny is needed to fix issues.

BUT also, Oil is petering out,
Water safe to drink, can be filtered and cleansed, but is also petering out.
alternate power is still hobbled by the fossil fuel corporate fossils who seek market domination still.
GMOs promised much, have actually given little as the drought resistant high yield food crops were turned actually into a market ploy for herbicides and still are just that.
Droughts are damaging food supplies as we speak.
The economic bubbles are colliding as one monster crash
Decadence over information
education low on the list, social programs also low Military and corporate programs get massive infusions

We have government types crying that we do not have enough to have fed all, treated all, and educated all, yet they always find the money for Military endeavors, corporate handouts, foreign aid stays massive in billions, dirty tricks get their massive payouts, the money is collected but the priority is what screws it up and sends it the wrong places. sent to those w/o the need, to programs that have more than enough influx already, whilst those with the most needs are vilified and blamed for their plights.

Meanwhile, as a distraction, bread and circuses we get, the pundits, the "reality shows" and other issues that are not important get more air play than the damages we do.

[Agartha]

Faith does not come from within ones self. Whether you believe in the Bible or not, the Bible is about who we are. Also, since when is believing in the bible belonging to organized religion? They are not one an the same.

My neighbor is from the middle east with a Christian blood line going back 2,000 years. He belongs to no church, yet goes and prays/ worships at different places every week. He has faith and is a true Christian.

Actually, faith comes from within one self. Faith is:

"Complete trust or confidence in someone or something" ( LINK )

And, just because you see the Bible in a certain way, it doesn't deny the fact that the Bible is the book of the one of the biggest organized religions in the world. And as the old testament is the Jewish Torah, we can actually say the Bible is at the head of 2 of the biggest organized religions in the world: Christianity and Judaism.

VM, you keep on saying that the Bible is about who we are..........so, who are we?

[Rockhopper]

Where the collapse is coming from is not just elite consumption, it is that we have as most empires run out of the old axiom of and for expansion. We show similar signs of decay to the old Roman Empire before it fell, same with the Meso-American Empires. Other empires could not survive the contact of other empires, but the present Human-corporate empire is going to burn out soon. I know the people here who have spawned and had kids want that there be a bright shiny future, but it is only if those with the bright and shiny ideas amongst them can be allowed to make such reality. The current form of governance is leading to drab, conformist, and dull thought as good, bright and shiny is scary, yet the bright and shiny is needed to fix issues.

BUT also, Oil is petering out,
Water safe to drink, can be filtered and cleansed, but is also petering out.
alternate power is still hobbled by the fossil fuel corporate fossils who seek market domination still.
GMOs promised much, have actually given little as the drought resistant high yield food crops were turned actually into a market ploy for herbicides and still are just that.
Droughts are damaging food supplies as we speak.
The economic bubbles are colliding as one monster crash
Decadence over information
education low on the list, social programs also low Military and corporate programs get massive infusions

We have government types crying that we do not have enough to have fed all, treated all, and educated all, yet they always find the money for Military endeavors, corporate handouts, foreign aid stays massive in billions, dirty tricks get their massive payouts, the money is collected but the priority is what screws it up and sends it the wrong places. sent to those w/o the need, to programs that have more than enough influx already, whilst those with the most needs are vilified and blamed for their plights.

Meanwhile, as a distraction, bread and circuses we get, the pundits, the "reality shows" and other issues that are not important get more air play than the damages we do.

Well said Len!

Empires begin by the need for resources. The Britz used their own resources until they ran out so then they traded for the resources from other countries. From the 1600's to the early 1800's they had sufficient iron ore to feed their industry. By about 1820, it had run out so they went looking elsewhere. Cotton had the same importance in the sailing ship days, as oil has today. It was needed for sails, ropes and caulking as well as clothing. That was the reason they went into India. They needed a place where they could grow rubber trees so Malaysia became the next target and so on. NZ became the food factory (still is!) and Aussie was the wool factory.

The US had all it's own resources for a long time, especially oil. By about 1965 it was running out there, King Hubbard's 'Peak Oil' referred to the oil resources in the lower 48 not the world. He predicted that it would reach it's peak in 1972 and he was only a couple of years out. So the US had to go out into the world and trade for more. Why trade for a product when you can just send an army in and take it? Kuwait, Iraq, Afganistan anyone?

BTW; My breathing is fantastic now, the valves are working well. I can jog up a flight of stairs now, something I couldn't do before.

Tim.

[Monk (in hiding)]

And I never said I have no faith: I said I don't believe in the bible or any other organized religion. I have more faith than you, hence I am a positive happy person.

Faith does not come from within ones self. Whether you believe in the Bible or not, the Bible is about who we are. Also, since when is believing in the bible belonging to organized religion? They are not one an the same.

My neighbor is from the middle east with a Christian blood line going back 2,000 years. He belongs to no church, yet goes and prays/ worships at different places every week. He has faith and is a true Christian.

Whipping a dead horse again VM! My atheism is how I define it not how you do. At no time have I ever said that I have no faith. I do , I have faith in my own ability to deal with whatever comes my way. I don't need a belief in a deity to do that. Just life experience.

Now the bible is not about who we are, we are completely different from those who wrote it and why it was written. It's full of contradictions and contractions that make no sense in a modern world. It's god is a nasty, vicious and vengeful entity and far from the benign entity that many people believe in.

Who is to say that the bible is the only book of life's laws? What about the quran? The torah? The talmud? The Indus valley vedas? The Chinese q'ing?  All are just as important as the bible.

No, your views are your own and you are entitled to them. I have no problem with what you may or may not believe. But your belief in them does not make them facts nor does it give you the right to criticise those who disagree with you.

Tim.

Yes, it's about who we are, nasty, vicious, vengeful and full of contradictions.

[Monk (in hiding)]

Faith does not come from within ones self. Whether you believe in the Bible or not, the Bible is about who we are. Also, since when is believing in the bible belonging to organized religion? They are not one an the same.

My neighbor is from the middle east with a Christian blood line going back 2,000 years. He belongs to no church, yet goes and prays/ worships at different places every week. He has faith and is a true Christian.

Actually, faith comes from within one self. Faith is:

"Complete trust or confidence in someone or something" ( LINK )

And, just because you see the Bible in a certain way, it doesn't deny the fact that the Bible is the book of the one of the biggest organized religions in the world. And as the old testament is the Jewish Torah, we can actually say the Bible is at the head of 2 of the biggest organized religions in the world: Christianity and Judaism.

VM, you keep on saying that the Bible is about who we are..........so, who are we?

Martin Luther's Definition of Faith

Faith is not what some people think it is. Their human dream
      is a delusion. Because they observe that faith is not followed by
      good works or a better life, they fall into error, even though they
      speak and hear much about faith. ``Faith is not enough,'' they
      say, ``You must do good works, you must be pious to be saved.''
      They think that, when you hear the gospel, you start working,
      creating by your own strength a thankful heart which says, ``I
      believe.'' That is what they think true faith is. But, because
      this is a human idea, a dream, the heart never learns anything
      from it, so it does nothing and reform doesn't come from this
      `faith,' either.

           Instead, faith is God's work in us, that changes us and gives
      new birth from God. (John 1:13). It kills the Old Adam and makes us
      completely different people. It changes our hearts, our spirits,
      our thoughts and all our powers. It brings the Holy Spirit with
      it. Yes, it is a living, creative, active and powerful thing, this
      faith. Faith cannot help doing good works constantly. It doesn't
      stop to ask if good works ought to be done, but before anyone
      asks, it already has done them and continues to do them without
      ceasing.  Anyone who does not do good works in this manner is an
      unbeliever.  He stumbles around and looks for faith and good
      works, even though he does not know what faith or good works are.
      Yet he gossips and chatters about faith and good works with many
      words. More......


http://www.iclnet.org/pub/resources/text/wittenberg/luther/luther-faith.txt

[Agartha]

Martin Luther's Definition of Faith

Faith is not what some people think it is. Their human dream
      is a delusion. Because they observe that faith is not followed by
      good works or a better life, they fall into error, even though they
      speak and hear much about faith. ``Faith is not enough,'' they
      say, ``You must do good works, you must be pious to be saved.''
      They think that, when you hear the gospel, you start working,
      creating by your own strength a thankful heart which says, ``I
      believe.'' That is what they think true faith is. But, because
      this is a human idea, a dream, the heart never learns anything
      from it, so it does nothing and reform doesn't come from this
      `faith,' either.

           Instead, faith is God's work in us, that changes us and gives
      new birth from God. (John 1:13). It kills the Old Adam and makes us
      completely different people. It changes our hearts, our spirits,
      our thoughts and all our powers. It brings the Holy Spirit with
      it. Yes, it is a living, creative, active and powerful thing, this
      faith. Faith cannot help doing good works constantly. It doesn't
      stop to ask if good works ought to be done, but before anyone
      asks, it already has done them and continues to do them without
      ceasing.  Anyone who does not do good works in this manner is an
      unbeliever.  He stumbles around and looks for faith and good
      works, even though he does not know what faith or good works are.
      Yet he gossips and chatters about faith and good works with many
      words. More......


http://www.iclnet.org/pub/resources/text/wittenberg/luther/luther-faith.txt

He was a brave, wise man and I agree with him, except believing in the gospels as those, to me, were only created and written by men.

I don't believe in God as some do, I do believe in an energy, a power, and that energy and power is pure love........love is what glues the world together, and us, and all other creatures......and all of nature and the universe.

I said I am an agnostic, not an Atheist, as there are too many mysteries out there to simply discard.... but I believe in what I think it's evidence, what satisfies my soul and mind, not what satisfies you or others. I believe in souls and I believe I have seen proof of that, when that lady knew her husband had died and there was no way she could have known.

But you haven't answered my question: you said the Bible is about who we are......so who are we, VM?

 

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